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Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, There are Five Possible Outcomes

As per Western government officials and think-tank analysts, the following are likely scenarios for the coming weeks and months. The globe was horrified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. However, President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of backing down.

As per Western government officials and think-tank analysts, the following are likely scenarios for the coming weeks and months:

1) Military quagmire

So far, Ukrainian forces have held off Russia’s invasion, thwarting a paratrooper attempt to seize the capital within early days and maintaining control over significant cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol.

Despite Russia’s claims to complete air superiority, Western diplomats believe Ukraine’s air defences all-around capital Kyiv and elsewhere look to be weakened but still operational.

2) Domestic Russian change

Russian President Vladimir Putin is closely monitoring domestic unrest.

Different sources of data on the war have been suppressed as a result of a crackdown on independent news and foreign news providers, tightening the hold of the ultra-loyal Russian official media.

Despite this, local rights groups report that modest anti-war protests have taken place in places ranging from Saint Petersburg through Moscow, with at least 6,000 people have been arrested.

3) Russian military success

Western defence analysts predict Russian troops to keep pushing forward, owing to their air power, superior weapons, and destructive artillery. Outside of Kyiv, a massive convoy of trucks has been gathered in preparation for an attack on the capital.

4) Conflict spreads

Ukraine shares boundaries with 4 former Soviet republics, which are currently members of the NATO military alliance led by the United States, which deems an assault on one member a strike on all.

Putin’s fondness for the Soviet Union, combined with his promise to preserve Russian minorities within Baltic states, has raised questions regarding his territorial ambitions.

Some fear that, after Ukraine, Putin may be targeting Moldova, a former Soviet state sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania.

5) NATO confrontation

The US and Russia have established a “deconfliction line” to exchange military information and avoid misunderstandings rapidly.

In Syria, US and Russian forces have already been fighting on opposite sides of the nation’s civil conflict since 2015; the same strategy is used.

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